SpaceX Falcon 9 Rocket Upper Stage Expected to Crash into Moon in August

Projected Lunar Impact

On August 5, at approximately 2:35 AM ET, an upper stage of a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket is expected to collide with the Moon. The impact site is anticipated to be near the Einstein Crater. This prediction was made by Bill Gray, creator of the Project Pluto program, after analyzing the rocket's orbital data.

Origin of the Rocket Stage

The Falcon 9 upper stage involved in the upcoming impact was part of SpaceX's Firefly Blue Ghost mission, launched on January 15, 2025. During this mission, the rocket carried Firefly Aerospace's Blue Ghost lunar lander and ispace's Hakuto-R lunar lander. After deploying its payloads, the rocket stage ran out of fuel and has been drifting in space since then, unable to return to Earth.

Impact Characteristics

The upper stage measures approximately 39 feet long and 13 feet wide, with a weight of about 4,000 kilograms. It is projected to strike the lunar surface at a speed of 5,400 mph. Despite its size, a study by Gray and his colleagues indicates the impact will not be substantial, as the stage is a hollow shell and moving slower than most natural lunar impactors.

Scientific Observation Opportunity

This event offers astronomers a chance to observe an artificial impact in real-time. Researchers can use this opportunity to study the dynamics of dust and plume movement resulting from impact events on the Moon. It also allows for investigation into the potential hazards posed by artificial space debris impacts on celestial bodies.

Visibility for Observers

The impact will be most visible from locations experiencing complete darkness at the time of the event. This includes parts of South America and low-to-mid latitude North America. Astronomers in North America, particularly away from the West Coast, have a higher likelihood of witnessing the crash, especially if the Moon is high in the sky during the impact.