Memory prices are projected to rise through Q3 2026, but growth will slow as consumers hit affordability limits. While demand for AI and server memory remains strong, consumer electronics manufacturers are struggling with higher costs, leading to a distinct divide in the market.
According to a report by TrendForce, memory prices are set to continue increasing through the third quarter of 2026. Conventional DRAM contract prices are expected to rise between 13% and 18% quarter-over-quarter, while NAND Flash contract prices are projected to increase by 10% to 15%.
Despite the projected increases, the rate of growth is significantly reduced from approximately 60% experienced in the previous quarter. This slowdown is attributed to consumer electronics manufacturers reaching a limit on what they can pay for memory, suggesting that the recent price increases are unsustainable in the consumer market.
The ongoing demand for AI inference systems is supporting the memory market, particularly for DRAM and NAND used in enterprise applications. Memory manufacturers are prioritizing production capacity for higher-margin server products, which exacerbates the situation for consumer memory supply.
The divide between enterprise and consumer markets is evident, with sustained demand for server DRAM anticipated through 2027. However, consumer markets are facing increasing pressure, leading manufacturers to raise prices or scale back production as consumer demand weakens.
As higher memory costs are filtered into retail pricing for PCs and smartphones, it is likely that overall PC shipments will be negatively impacted. Similarly, smartphone vendors may adjust production plans and raise prices to manage the impact of elevated LPDRAM costs.
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Memory prices are projected to rise through Q3 2026, but growth will slow as consumers hit affordability limits. While demand for AI and server memory remains strong, consumer electronics manufacturers are struggling with higher costs, leading to a distinct divide in the market.