Analysis of US-Canada Tariffs and Their Economic Impact on American Households and Industries

Tariff Costs and Who Bears Them

The analysis details the financial burden of tariffs on Canadian imports, which are primarily carried by American importers. These costs are derived from customs logs that record duties on every shipment crossing the border. The data reflects actual money collected on Canadian goods.

Household Impact and Modeling

Beyond direct import costs, a broader model estimates the impact of tariffs on American households. This model considers tariffs on all U.S. imports since 2025, including those from China, Mexico, the EU, and Canada. It accounts for how much of a duty businesses pass on to consumers versus absorbing the cost, using assumptions detailed in the methodology.

Canadian Retaliatory Tariffs

Canada has implemented retaliatory tariffs on American exports, affecting various sectors. Currently, these tariffs primarily target steel, but are set to expand to include groceries. The rates for Canadian tariffs are 25% on existing items, with a planned increase to 50% for hundreds of American steel and aluminum lines starting in September.

Energy Trade Considerations

The analysis also touches upon Canada's energy supply as a significant economic exposure for the United States. While Canada has not yet used energy as a retaliatory measure, the potential impact on states reliant on Canadian energy imports is highlighted as a 'nuclear option' in trade disputes.

Methodology and Data Sources

The data presented in the analysis is primarily based on six public and citable datasets from the U.S. Census Bureau. These include duty collected on Canadian goods, and U.S. exports to Canada by state and commodity or industry. The only exception to measured data is the household cost estimate, which relies on a specific assumption regarding duty pass-through.