Former UK Defence Intelligence Head Discusses Cyber Warfare and Continuous Campaigning

Declassification of Russian Invasion Plans

General Sir Jim Hockenhull, as Chief of Defence Intelligence from December 2018 to May 2022, made the decision to declassify and publish information regarding Russia’s plans to invade Ukraine. This included details on the routes Russian forces intended to take. The objective was to expose Moscow's intentions before a false narrative could be established, a move now considered successful despite initial government skepticism.

Continuous Campaigning by Adversaries

Hockenhull noted that Britain's adversaries engage in continuous campaigning, integrating every state instrument into a sustained effort. He contrasted this with Britain's approach, which he described as frequently rebuilding its operational machinery. This observation was made shortly before the UK appointed its fifth prime minister and fifth defence secretary since the Ukraine invasion.

Cyber Warfare and Deterrence

He stressed the importance of continuous campaigning in cyberspace, explaining that cyber capabilities cannot be stockpiled like traditional weapons. A single software update can render tools obsolete, making them more akin to temporary assemblies for specific targets. Hockenhull also argued that current deterrence theory, rooted in the 1950s, is outdated and should instead focus on the impact of an adversary knowing they are being observed.

Britain's Daily Cyber Attacks

Hockenhull highlighted that Britain faces daily cyberattacks and the potential for sabotage. He emphasized the need for public awareness regarding these ongoing threats, connecting it back to the idea that future conflicts will not be confined to distant battlefields.