Lancet Commission Identifies Malicious AI and Nuclear War as Top Threats by 2100

Top Threats to Humanity Identified

The Lancet Commission on 21st Century Global Threats to Health released a new global risk assessment, highlighting malicious use of AI and nuclear conflict as the primary threats to human existence by the year 2100. These two risks top a list of 17 major threats to human health over the next 75 years.

Interconnected Risks and Potential Impact

The commission emphasized that all identified threats are interconnected and require a holistic approach to resolution. Malicious AI, including bioweapons, and nuclear conflict carry extinction risks, with nuclear conflict potentially causing global famine by blocking sunlight and AI-created biological weapons posing a direct threat. While the likelihood of these events is considered low, their potential scale of harm is described as apocalyptic.

Broader Catastrophic Threats

Beyond the top two, other risks deemed "major catastrophic threats" capable of causing over 1 billion cumulative disability-adjusted life years (Dalys) include air pollution, antimicrobial resistance, childhood malnutrition, climate breakdown, conventional conflict, declining overseas aid, high alcohol use, high blood pressure, income inequality, low educational attainment, naturally occurring pandemics, obesity, poor mental health, smoking, and unhealthy aging.

Methodology and Call to Action

To compile the list, the commission modeled the potential loss of healthy life years (Dalys) due to sickness, disability, or early deaths from each threat based on current trajectories. Threats were included if they posed a high number of lost healthy years and had potential solutions. The report stresses that decisions made by current leaders will shape future health and wellbeing, indicating a "realistic route to act" on each threat.