Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang Predicts China Will Develop Advanced Lithography by 2030

Huang's Prediction on China's Lithography Future

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang believes China will develop its own advanced lithography systems by 2030. He emphasized China's strength in high-volume production, suggesting that achieving this technological capability is inevitable.

Huang's perspective highlights a potential future where China becomes self-sufficient in a critical area of semiconductor manufacturing, which has historically been a significant challenge for the country.

Current State of China's Lithography Capabilities

Currently, China's leading lithography tool producer, Shanghai Micro Electronics Equipment (SMEE), can mass-produce 193-nm ArF dry scanners for 90nm-class process technology. While SMEE has reportedly developed a 28nm-capable ArF immersion scanner, there is no public evidence of its volume production or widespread use in high-volume chip manufacturing.

Shanghai Aishengna Electronic Technology Group, an affiliate of SMEE, has reportedly delivered its first immersion scanner capable of 28nm-class process technology. However, these tools require extensive qualification before high-volume manufacturing, indicating a multi-year timeline for widespread deployment.

Challenges to Achieving Parity by 2030

Even with initial deliveries of advanced scanners, widespread production use before 2028–2029 is unlikely. Furthermore, matching the capabilities of early-generation ASML immersion scanners would still leave Chinese suppliers behind ASML's contemporary systems.

Achieving technological parity in ArF immersion lithography by 2030 is considered highly unlikely by some experts, given the current gap and the time required for qualification and scaling of new technologies.