The author recounts a conversation with an AI lab employee who expressed pity for the author's focus on regulatory bottlenecks in medical progress. The AI expert suggested that advanced AI, particularly AGI, would soon overcome such issues through its persuasive capabilities.
The author countered by stating that medicine will be increasingly bottlenecked by regulation and clinical trials, not a lack of pre-clinical research. The example of housing was also used, where technology for better housing has existed for decades, but affordability remains a political will issue, not a capability one.
Despite the AI expert's incredulity and the author's initial self-doubt, the author reaffirmed the belief that intelligence is frequently not the primary bottleneck for real-world change. This conviction holds even when confronted by individuals perceived as smarter or having access to privileged information.
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This opinion piece argues that intelligence, even advanced AI, is often not the main obstacle to real-world progress, citing examples like medical regulation and housing policy. It suggests that political will and regulatory frameworks are more significant bottlenecks than raw intellectual capability.