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Opinion: Open Source Economics and the "Free Wins" Equilibrium

🔄 Updated 3d ago
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Key points

  • Open source licenses like MIT, BSD, and Apache represent a stable equilibrium.
  • Projects with less permissive licenses often lose to fully free alternatives.
  • The author views this "free wins" outcome as stable but not optimal.
  • The piece uses an evolutionary biology model of hawks and doves to explain the dynamic.

The "Free Wins" Equilibrium in Open Source

The author posits that the open source ecosystem has reached an "evolutionarily stable strategy" where software released under permissive licenses (e.g., MIT, BSD, Apache) that allow commercial use for free consistently outcompetes projects with more restrictive terms. This stability is compared to an evolutionary biology model of hawks and doves, where closed source acts as a 'hawk' competing for resources (money, users, developer attention) and open source acts as a 'dove' cooperating by sharing code.

Challenges for Less Permissive Licenses

The article suggests that any open source project attempting to be a "slightly less generous dove" by imposing more conditions or charging for use has historically been outcompeted by projects that remain fully permissive. This dynamic reinforces the dominance of licenses that demand nothing in return for commercial use.

Implications for Open Source Sustainability

While this equilibrium is stable, the author implies it may not be the most beneficial strategy for the long-term sustainability or economic viability of open source development. The piece sets up a discussion on how to potentially alter this established dynamic, with a hint towards exploring solutions involving registries later in the full article.

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Primary sources

GitHub npm/rfcs

Reporting from

An opinion piece argues that the current state of open source software is an "evolutionarily stable strategy" where free, permissive licenses dominate, making it difficult for less generous open source models to succeed. The author suggests that this equilibrium, while stable, is not necessarily the best outcome for open source sustainability.