Historically, software development processes were built around human coders as the scarce resource. However, this assumption is changing rapidly. By September, over 40% of pull requests on GitHub were initiated by an AI agent's first draft, a significant increase from 17% in March. This indicates a fundamental shift in how code is generated, making it cheaper and faster.
As code generation becomes automated, the role of software engineers is evolving. They are transitioning from writing code by hand to designing and managing the systems through which automated work flows. This transformation positions software engineers as 'process engineers' building what can be described as a 'software factory'.
While AI agents have accelerated code generation, the subsequent stages of the software delivery process have not kept pace. Data from CircleCI shows a 59% year-over-year growth in daily workflow runs, but this growth is uneven, with the top 5% of teams seeing a 97% increase while the bottom quartile shows no measurable change. Studies indicate that increased pull request output due to automation can double reviewer load, with automated review surpassing human review in coverage. This suggests that review and verification have become the new bottlenecks.
The shift in software development parallels historical changes in manufacturing. Three key lessons apply: first, people design the system, not the direct output, as seen in Ford's assembly line improvements. Second, quality must be integrated at every step, exemplified by Toyota's production system and Deming's principles. Third, the slowest step dictates the overall pace, a concept highlighted by Eliyahu Goldratt's 'The Goal'. In software, speeding up coding without addressing review and verification simply shifts the bottleneck.
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The role of software engineers is shifting from manual coding to designing automated systems, as AI agents now draft over 40% of GitHub pull requests. This change mirrors manufacturing automation, where human roles evolve to system design rather than direct production. The industry faces new bottlenecks in code review and verification as code generation speeds up.