Study suggests China's EV manufacturing could rely on recycled materials by 2050

Recycling Potential in EV Manufacturing

A study led by Xin Xiong at Nanjing University suggests that recycling could become the primary source for many essential materials used in electric vehicle (EV) component manufacturing in China over the coming decades. This finding addresses the challenge of finite resources and the economic complexities often associated with recycling, especially in rapidly evolving technological sectors like EVs.

Modeling Material Needs and Supply

Researchers modeled the supply of recycled materials against manufacturing demand in China from 2010 to 2050. The model included materials crucial for batteries (lithium, cobalt, nickel, manganese, phosphorus, sodium, sulfur, graphite) and electric motors (copper, neodymium, dysprosium, samarium, cerium) across hybrid, battery-electric, and fuel-cell vehicles.

Four scenarios for technological progression were considered, ranging from slow transitions to technologies like solid-state lithium and sodium batteries to faster shifts. The model calculated the "circularity potential" for each element, indicating how much manufacturing demand could be met by recycled material in a given year.

Impact of Chinese Policies

The study incorporated recent Chinese policies designed to increase recycling rates for certain battery elements from 40 percent to at least 98 percent. Additionally, policies aiming to boost the share of EVs in new sales from 45 percent to 60 percent by 2030 were factored in. These policy considerations influence the projected availability of materials for recycling.

Vehicle Sales and Recycling Lag

The model projects a continuous increase in battery electric vehicle sales up to 2050, even as hybrid and plug-in hybrid vehicles gradually phase out. This trend means the number of vehicles entering the recycling stream will steadily increase, albeit with a lag behind new sales. The model also assumes frequent battery replacements, particularly in commercial settings and due to China's battery-swapping stations, leading to additional batteries being manufactured and recycled.