Tesla's Robotaxi Program Faces Scrutiny Over Flat Mileage and Shrinking Fleet

Tesla's Robotaxi Program Underperforms Expectations

During a recent earnings call, Tesla CEO Elon Musk presented a positive outlook for the company's robotaxi program, mentioning new cities, increased mileage, and more users. However, Musk also tempered expectations for the program's future, stating the company is scaling "as fast as humanly possible" while prioritizing safety.

Discrepancy Between Claims and Reality

Despite Musk's assertions of growth, data suggests the robotaxi program's mileage is largely flat, and the number of vehicles in the fleet appears to be decreasing. This contradicts the company's claims of expansion and raises questions about the safety of its unsupervised driving technology, despite executive statements of "zero notable incidents."

Reported Metrics and Industry Comparison

Tesla's Head of AI, Ashok Elluswamy, reported that the company's unsupervised robotaxis have driven 380,000 miles across six cities in two states. Musk added that this mileage was increasing at a rate of 10 percent per week. Elluswamy also criticized competitors using lidar sensors, advocating for Tesla's camera-only approach for "safe, comfortable, and affordable autonomy."

However, these figures are significantly lower than those of competitors. Waymo, which utilizes lidar and radar in addition to cameras, typically drives around four million miles per week. Tesla's total mileage after a year in its robotaxi program is less than 10 percent of Waymo's weekly figure.

Investor Concerns

The disparity between Tesla's reported progress and its actual performance is causing concern among investors. James Picariello, a senior analyst at BNP Paribas Equity Research, described the situation as "an alarming decline" in a research note to clients, indicating growing skepticism regarding the robotaxi program's trajectory.