US medium-lift rocket market faces uncertainty as Falcon 9 exits commercial launches

Historical Context of US Medium-Lift Rockets

The Antares vehicle, which debuted 13 years ago, was the last new medium-lift rocket in the United States. The initial 100-series Antares used refurbished Soviet-era engines, leading to an explosion on its fifth launch in 2014. The Antares also featured a core stage manufactured in Ukraine.

Emergence of New US-Built Vehicles

A new generation of medium-lift vehicles is now under development, differing significantly from the Antares. Four forthcoming rockets will feature engines built by their respective manufacturers within the United States. These companies have adopted lessons from SpaceX's Falcon 9, particularly the strategy of in-house manufacturing for engines to control timelines and costs.

Market Shift Due to Falcon 9's Departure

SpaceX plans to withdraw the Falcon 9 rocket from the commercial market by 2028. This creates a significant void in the medium-lift launch sector. The larger Vulcan and New Glenn rockets have full manifests and are costly for small- and medium-sized satellites, leaving satellite operators uncertain about future launch providers between 2027 and 2030.

Opportunity for New Entrants

The impending exit of Falcon 9 from commercial services opens a substantial market opportunity for new medium-lift rockets. The challenge for these new vehicles will be to achieve readiness and scale their launch cadences to meet the demand from satellite operators.