DRAM Supply to Module Makers Could Drop Over 70% by 2027 Due to HBM and Server RAM Demand

Projected DRAM Supply Reduction

C.K. Chang, CEO of Apacer, announced that the supply of DRAM chips from major manufacturers to independent module makers is projected to fall by more than 70% by 2027, relative to 2026 volumes. This forecast was made during Apacer's 1H 2026 investor conference and subsequent media interviews. Chang anticipates that severe shortages will persist at least until mid-2027, with DRAM remaining the most constrained memory segment.

Shifting Manufacturing Priorities

The significant reduction in supply to module makers is a consequence of major DRAM manufacturers, including Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron, reallocating production capacity. These companies are increasingly prioritizing higher-margin high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and advanced server memory to meet the demands of large AI and cloud customers. This shift means less capacity is available for conventional DDR4 and DDR5 products, which are typically purchased by module makers.

Impact on Independent Module Makers

For companies like Apacer, which purchase memory wafers and convert them into finished products such as DIMMs, SSDs, and embedded storage, the primary risk has shifted from overpaying for chips to the inability to secure any supply at all. Chang estimates that approximately 60% of DRAM capacity is now directed towards server-related applications, intensifying competition for the remaining market share of conventional DRAM.

Apacer's Mitigation Strategies

In response to the anticipated shortages, Apacer has significantly increased its inventory. The company's inventory grew from NT$8.38 billion ($259 million USD) to NT$12.4 billion ($383.2 million USD) by the end of June, an increase of approximately 48%. Additionally, Apacer is arranging a five-year syndicated loan of up to NT$4 billion ($123.6 million USD) to facilitate future chip purchases and address other operational needs.

Market Implications

While memory price increases are expected to slow in the latter half of 2026 due to consumer resistance, the underlying supply constraints are projected to continue. DDR5 RDIMM server modules have already experienced aggressive price increases and are identified as having the greatest potential for further mark-ups, reflecting the high demand in the server market.