● Covered by 1 source · 1 reportLow impact1 negative
Forecast Models Predict Record-Setting El Niño Event
Key points
- Models show a 90% chance of a record-setting El Niño.
- Multi-model median peak is 3.6C, 0.8C hotter than the 2015-16 record.
- 91% of ensemble members exceed the 2015-16 record.
- The event is developing faster than the 1997-98 El Niño.
Record-Breaking Forecast
Seasonal forecast models, incorporating July data from 667 ensemble members across 14 models, predict that the current El Niño event is highly likely to be the strongest since reliable records began. There is a 90% chance of this event setting a new record.
Magnitude of the Anomaly
The multi-model median for the peak of this El Niño, measured as detrended sea surface temperature anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region, stands at 3.6C. This is approximately 0.8C hotter than the previous record of 2.75C set in 2015-16. For comparison, the difference between the strongest and fifth strongest El Niño events over the past 150 years is only about 0.5C, indicating the unprecedented nature of this forecast.
Exceeding Historical Records
No event in 150 years of observations has significantly surpassed 2.75C. The middle 80% of this year's forecast ensemble is entirely at or above this all-time record, with even the low end of the plume reaching 2.8C. Approximately 91% of the ensemble members predict a peak exceeding the 2015-16 record.
Rapid Development Trajectory
The current El Niño is developing faster than the 1997-98 event, which was previously considered the standard for rapid El Niño onset. Unlike the 2015 event, which began with already warm conditions, this El Niño started from La Niña-like conditions in January, further highlighting its unusual trajectory.
✨ This summary was generated by AI from the outlets' reporting listed below. It is not independently verified and may contain errors — check the original sources. How BrevFeed works →
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Reporting from
Seasonal forecast models indicate a 90% chance that the current El Niño will be the strongest on record, potentially exceeding previous peaks by a significant margin. This forecast suggests a climate event outside the range of previously observed phenomena.