Global Glacier Extinction Explorer quantifies individual glacier disappearance

Shifting Focus to Individual Glacier Fate

Traditional methods of quantifying glacier changes focus on total regional mass and area loss, which do not fully capture the disappearance of individual glaciers. This study introduces a new approach to assess the fate of individual glaciers globally, recognizing their cultural, ecological, and societal value beyond their contribution to sea-level rise or regional water resources. This initiative aligns with the UN International Year of Glacier Preservation in 2025.

Methodology for Extinction Assessment

To determine glacier extinction, two criteria are applied: a glacier is considered extinct if its area drops below 0.01 km², consistent with common inventory thresholds, or if its remaining volume falls below 1% of its initial value. The study utilizes three global glacier models (GloGEM, OGGM, PyGEM) combined with multiple General Circulation Models and emission scenarios corresponding to projected temperature increases of +1.5°C, +2.0°C, +2.7°C, and +4.0°C. These models generate volume and area trajectories for each glacier, which are then combined to determine median extinction years and probability ranges.

Data Sources and Availability

The extinction projections are based on research published in Nature Climate Change by Van Tricht, L., Zekollari, H., Huss, M. et al. Regional and glacier-specific results, including those displayed in the explorer, are publicly accessible on Zenodo. Glacier outlines are sourced from the Randolph Glacier Inventory (RGI v6.0), and ice volume data comes from a consensus estimate by Farinotti, D. et al. published in Nat. Geosci.