Iceland is conducting a referendum to determine if it should restart negotiations to join the European Union. These talks were initially halted 13 years ago. The vote is taking place on Saturday, with results anticipated early Sunday.
The referendum is projected to be a close contest. The latest opinion poll shows the 'No' campaign ahead with 51.6%, though an earlier poll had favored the 'Yes' campaign. Prime Minister Kristrún Frostadóttir's government brought the referendum forward due to international affairs.
The primary concerns driving the debate are Iceland's sovereignty and its vital fishing industry, rather than security issues despite its NATO membership. The 'No' campaign expresses fears about losing control over Iceland's fishing grounds under the EU's Common Fisheries Policy. Iceland's fishing and marine industries account for nearly 40% of its exports.
A 'Yes' vote would not finalize EU membership but would endorse moving towards an accession agreement. This agreement would then require approval through a second referendum, parliamentary consent, and constitutional amendments, as well as ratification by all 27 EU member states. Conversely, a 'No' vote would not permanently rule out future talks.
Iceland is already integrated into the EU's single market and Schengen zone through the European Economic Area. EU membership would extend this to the customs union and eventually the euro. When talks were paused in 2013, 27 of 35 negotiation chapters had begun, with 11 provisionally completed. European Commission officials have suggested that resumed talks could conclude within one to two years.
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Iceland is holding a referendum to decide whether to resume talks on joining the European Union, 13 years after negotiations were paused. The outcome is expected to be close, with recent polls showing a slight lead for the 'No' campaign, primarily due to concerns over sovereignty and the fishing industry.