Long Bets prediction on URL persistence to be decided in 2022

The Long Bets Challenge

A bet placed on Long Bets in 2011 will conclude on February 22, 2022. The bet concerns whether the URL http://www.longbets.org/601 will still be accessible and display specific text after eleven years, addressing the issue of link rot on the internet.

Conditions for Fulfillment

For the bet to be won by Matt, accessing http://www.longbets.org/601 between 00:01 UTC and 23:59 UTC on February 22, 2022, must return an HTML document containing the exact text: "The original URL for this prediction (www.longbets.org/601) will no longer be available in eleven years." A 301 redirect to a different URL containing this text would also satisfy the conditions.

The Concept of Link Rot

The bet highlights the challenge of link rot, a phenomenon where web documents become unavailable at their original locations over time. The participant who initiated the bet, Matt, believes that maintaining stable URIs is achievable with current technology and strategies, citing his own older websites that have maintained their URL schemes for over a decade.

Impact on Web Archiving

This bet serves as a practical demonstration of the difficulties and possibilities in web archiving and content persistence. While much of the web is ephemeral, the bet suggests that with moderate technological knowledge, it is possible to keep sites and their URI systems stable for extended periods, even over a decade.