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Research Quantifies SpaceX Falcon 9's Dominance in Global Launch Market
Key points
- SpaceX Falcon 9 has launched over 75% of all mass into orbit.
- US payload share rose from under 20% in 2012 to over 82% in 2024.
- Research analyzed 6,700 launches from 1960 to 2025.
- US cumulative payload to orbit has doubled Russia's since 1990.
SpaceX's Impact on Launch Market
A new study in Economics Letters details the profound changes brought about by SpaceX's Falcon 9 rocket. The research, conducted by public policy experts from the United Kingdom and Italy, analyzed a dataset of over 6,700 launches spanning from 1960 to 2025 to quantify the market disruption caused by the Falcon 9's reusability and frequent launches.
United States' Dominance in Payload to Orbit
One key finding reveals a significant shift in cumulative payload to orbit by nation. After the Space Shuttle Columbia accident in 2003, Russia initially pulled ahead of the United States. However, with the ramp-up of Falcon 9 launches in the early 2020s, the United States dramatically increased its lead, now having more than doubled Russia's total payloads to orbit since 1990.
Shifting Global Market Share
The research also illustrates changes in yearly global payload shares. Between 1995 and 2012, the US share of global payload decreased from nearly 50 percent to less than 20 percent, falling behind Russia and only slightly above China and Europe. Since then, the US share has rapidly accelerated, reaching a peak of over 82 percent in 2024, largely attributed to SpaceX's activities.
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Reporting from
New research published in Economics Letters quantifies how SpaceX's Falcon 9 rocket, its reusability, and high launch cadence have significantly altered the global space launch market. The study highlights a dramatic shift in payload to orbit, with the United States, driven by Falcon 9, now surpassing other nations in cumulative mass launched.