A report from the Houston Advanced Research Center (HARC) warns that the proliferation of new data centers in Texas could significantly degrade air quality. If all planned data center projects connect to the Texas electricity grid and use the anticipated grid mix, soot and smog-forming pollutants are projected to rise sharply.
Within five years, fine particle pollution (soot) from the power sector could more than triple, reaching levels not seen since 2006. Smog-forming NOx emissions could increase by 136%, approaching 2004 pollution levels. Carbon dioxide emissions are also projected to climb 90% above 2025 levels.
The extent of the environmental impact depends on how data center developers and utilities meet the substantial electricity demand. The HARC report modeled different outcomes based on various energy demand projections and sourcing methods.
While many proposed projects are speculative, the choice between gas turbines and renewable energy sources will be critical. Onsite renewable energy generation, such as solar and wind farms, could reduce NOx emissions by up to 10 times compared to relying solely on grid power.
Conversely, if developers opt to build onsite gas engines to power data centers, potentially to bypass long grid connection wait times, this could lead to the highest possible pollution levels. This scenario would exacerbate the projected air quality decline.
Texas has emerged as a leading market for data center capacity, with 26 gigawatts of existing and under-construction capacity. The state is also anticipating four times more proposed data center projects, making the energy sourcing decisions in Texas particularly impactful for regional air quality.
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New research from the Houston Advanced Research Center (HARC) indicates that the rapid expansion of data centers in Texas, particularly those supporting generative AI, could triple soot pollution and increase smog-forming NOx emissions by 136% within five years. This increase would reverse air quality improvements made since the early 2000s, depending on how these facilities source their electricity.