TrendForce forecasts 2027 notebook shipment decline due to rising component costs

Projected Shipment Decline for 2027

TrendForce forecasts a decrease in global notebook shipments for 2027. The extent of this decline is estimated to be between a low-single-digit and a high-single-digit percentage, depending on how manufacturers manage increasing component expenses.

Impact of Rising Component Costs

The primary risk to the notebook market in 2027 is shifting from supply constraints to the impact of rising costs on demand. If prices for DRAM and CPUs remain elevated, brands may pass these costs to consumers, potentially extending replacement cycles and pushing the shipment decline into the high-single-digit range.

In the third quarter of 2026, CPU, DRAM, and SSD costs constituted 68% of the bill of materials for a mainstream $900 notebook. As lower-cost inventories are depleted, manufacturers will face direct pressure from these rising prices.

Manufacturer Trade-offs

Notebook brands will face difficult choices in 2027. They can either increase retail prices, risking weaker demand, absorb the cost increases at the expense of profit margins, or reduce product specifications, which could make their offerings less competitive in the market.

Component Supply Outlook

DRAM supply is expected to remain tight in 2027 due to demand from AI applications, posing a risk of limited supply growth for PC DRAM. Conversely, NAND Flash supply constraints are anticipated to ease in the second half of 2027.